The ATO has reported (on its website), that in October 2017, it updated its estimates for goods and services tax (GST), wine equalisation tax (WET), fuel excise, pay as you go (PAYG) withholding, and fuel tax credits (FTC).
They advised: “We are in the process of refreshing our estimates and anticipate the next updates will be published in October 2018. We have also added two new gaps: superannuation guarantee and large corporate groups income tax. We are working towards developing tax gap estimates for all of the taxes and programs we administer.
The following is a summary of our latest gap estimates in alphabetical order (note that the latest data varies depending on the particular gap):
- GST gap – the net GST gap estimate for 2015–16 has trended slightly upwards from previous years to $4.5 billion (7.3%). This rise reflects a stronger growth of the theoretical GST liability estimate relative to actual GST collections. It is the highest gap among the taxes we have analysed to date, but compliance levels are quite stable. Australia ranks relatively well among similar nations that have estimated GST/VAT gaps.
- Large corporate income tax gap – in 2014–15, the net large corporate income tax gap is estimated to be $2.5 billion (5.8%). This trend has been steady for a number of years, and the gap primarily reflects differences in the interpretation of complex areas of tax law.
- PAYG withholding gap – the net PAYG withholding gap estimate for 2014–15 is $3.1 billion (1.9%). This suggests that employers are generally compliant with their withholding obligations. We estimate that employers are paying about 95% of the PAYG withholding they are required to without intervention from us.
- Super guarantee gap – for 2014–15, we estimate the super guarantee gap to be $2.85 billion. This represents 5.2% of the total estimated $54.78 billion in super guarantee employers were required to pay. In 2014–15, superannuation funds reported to the ATO that employers paid $51.51 billion in super guarantee. This represents 95% of our adjusted theoretical super guarantee amount.
- Wine equalisation tax gap – in the 2014–15 WET estimate, we included the payable and refundable WET amounts to generate a net WET gap estimate. A new methodology was adopted that used a random enquiry program. The net WET gap estimate for 2014–15 is $4.7 million (0.6%). This is consistent with our observations of compliance within the WET system.
- Fuel excise gap – the net fuel excise gap is estimated to be $325 million (1.9%) in 2015–16. The excise products covered in this estimation are concentrated in an industry with a small number of large taxpayers who we have generally observed to be highly compliant.
- Fuel tax credits – the net fuel tax credits gap for 2015–16 is estimated to be –$19 million (−0.3%). This reflects our findings from random enquiries that suggest the under-claiming of fuel tax credits exceeds the over-claimed amounts. This result is consistent with previous estimate outcomes.
The full ATO explanation of their ‘gap analysis’ is reproduced in this related TT Tax Article.
[ATO website: Gap analysis; LTN 208, 31/10/17; TM Oct 2017]